For the week ending October 10, 2025

Economic data this week pointed to sticky inflation expectations, lighter consumer borrowing, and higher long-term Treasury yields. Oil inventories climbed again, while consumer sentiment held steady. Overall, inflation and yields ticked up, but spending and energy trends showed some cooling.

Inflation & Consumer Indicators

Inflation expectations rose modestly, while consumer borrowing slowed and sentiment softened slightly.

• Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep): 3.4%, up from 3.2%, showing a mild uptick in price concerns.

• Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct): 4.6%, barely below 4.7% prior, suggesting near-term inflation views remain elevated.

• Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct): 3.7%, unchanged, signaling longer-term stability.

• Consumer Credit (Aug): $0.36B vs. $12.9B forecast and $18.05B prior — a sharp slowdown, hinting at tighter household finances.

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct): 55.0 vs. 54.1 expected and 55.1 prior, steady but subdued amid lingering inflation concerns.

Economic Growth

Economic growth held firm, with no major revisions or surprises.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): 3.8%, unchanged from both forecast and previous reading — suggesting steady growth expectations heading into Q4.

Energy & Commodities

Oil inventories rose again, easing supply worries but hinting at softer demand.

• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +2.78M vs. +2.25M forecast, rebounding from -3.67M prior.

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories: +3.72M vs. +2.25M forecast and +1.79M prior, confirming an oversupplied market tone.

• Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.76M vs. -0.27M prior, continuing slight draws at the delivery hub.

• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 418 vs. 421 expected, down from 422 prior — continued modest decline in drilling activity.

• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 547, down from 549 prior — reinforcing the same trend of reduced exploration.

Government Finance & Rates

Bond yields continued to climb, reflecting investor caution about inflation and debt supply.

• 3-Year Note Auction: 3.576%, higher than the previous 3.485%.

• 10-Year Note Auction: 4.117%, up from 4.033%, signaling persistent upward pressure on yields.

• 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.734%, rising from 4.651%, suggesting investor demand remains tepid at longer maturities.

• Fed’s Balance Sheet: $6,591B vs. $6,587B prior — virtually unchanged, consistent with gradual quantitative tightening.