For the week ending June 13, 2025

Inflation Indicators

Inflation data showed continued cooling, with both consumer and producer prices coming in softer than expected.

• Consumer Inflation Expectations (May): Fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6%, suggesting moderating longer-term price concerns.

• Core CPI (YoY, May): Held steady at 2.8%, just shy of the 2.9% forecast.

• Core CPI (MoM, May): Rose only 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%), showing weak monthly inflation pressure.

• CPI (YoY, May): Increased slightly to 2.4%, a touch above last month but below forecast.

• PPI (MoM, May): Up just 0.1%, signaling that wholesale inflation is also subdued.

Labor Market

Jobless claims ticked higher, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions.

• Initial Jobless Claims: Came in at 248K, unchanged from the prior week and above the 242K estimate.

• Continuing Jobless Claims: Rose to 1.956 million, up from 1.902 million last week, signaling persistent unemployment.

Consumer Sentiment

Confidence surged in June, driven by easing inflation expectations and improving outlooks.

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun): Jumped to 60.5, beating forecasts and reaching the highest level since early 2024.

• Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun): Rose sharply to 58.4, from 47.9 last month.

• Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, reflecting increased optimism about near-term inflation.

• Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Edged down to 4.1%, maintaining a steady long-term view.

Bond Market

Yields climbed across all major auctions, reflecting shifting expectations around Fed policy and inflation.

• 3-Year Note Auction: Yield rose to 3.972%, up from 3.824%.

• 10-Year Note Auction: Yield climbed to 4.421%, higher than last month’s 4.342%.

• 30-Year Bond Auction: Yield moved slightly up to 4.844%, from 4.819% previously.

• Federal Budget Balance (May): Posted a deficit of $316B, wider than expected and much larger than last May’s surplus.

Energy and Commodities

Crude inventories continued to fall, while rig counts and speculative positions suggest optimism in the energy space.

• Crude Oil Inventories: Fell by 3.644M barrels, a larger draw than forecast.

• API Weekly Crude Stock: Down 0.370M barrels, showing a more modest decline than last week’s -3.3M.

• Cushing Crude Inventories: Dropped 0.403M barrels, reversing last week’s build.

• Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Declined to 439, from 442.

• CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions: Rose to 191.9K, up from 168.0K, reflecting bullish sentiment.

Other Market Indicators

Positioning data reveals growing caution in equities and steady interest in gold.

• CFTC Gold Net Positions: Held steady at 187.5K, nearly unchanged from last week.

• CFTC Nasdaq 100 Net Positions: Increased to 17.7K, suggesting growing confidence in tech.

• CFTC S&P 500 Net Positions: Turned more bearish at -127.7K, down from -69.4K.