For the week ending January 31, 2025

Please see the summary of last week's economic indicator outcomes below (grouped by indicator type):

Housing Market

• New Home Sales (Dec) rose to 698K, exceeding the 669K forecast and improving from 674K in November. This suggests continued resilience in the housing sector despite higher interest rates.

Consumer & Business Sentiment

• CB Consumer Confidence (Jan) fell to 104.1, below the expected 105.7 and significantly down from 109.5 in December, indicating growing consumer caution.

• Chicago PMI (Jan) weakened to 39.5, missing the 40.3 forecast but still an improvement from 36.9 in the prior month, signaling ongoing contraction in business activity.

Manufacturing & Industrial Activity

• Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) declined 2.2%, a sharper drop than the 0.3% forecast and worse than the -2.0% reading in November, reflecting weak demand in the industrial sector.

Inflation & Monetary Policy

• Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec) met expectations at 0.2%, slightly above November’s 0.1%, while the YoY figure remained steady at 2.8%, aligning with forecasts. These figures reinforce expectations of stable inflation.

• The Fed Interest Rate Decision held steady at 4.50%, matching consensus. The FOMC Statement and Press Conference likely provided further insights into the Fed’s stance on future rate adjustments.

Labor Market

• Initial Jobless Claims fell to 207K, lower than the 224K forecast and below the 223K from the prior week, suggesting continued labor market strength.

Economic Growth

• GDP (QoQ) (Q4) came in at 2.3%, underperforming the 2.7% forecast and slowing from 3.1% in Q3, indicating some cooling in economic expansion.

Energy Market

• Crude Oil Inventories increased by 3.463M barrels, surpassing the 2.200M forecast and reversing last week’s -1.017M draw, implying higher supply levels.

In a nutshell…

Last week, the U.S. economy showed signs of slowing down. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was 2.3%, lower than expected and down from 3.1% in the previous quarter. However, the job market stayed strong, with fewer people filing for unemployment benefits. Inflation remained steady, with prices rising 0.2% in December and holding at a 2.8% yearly rate. Manufacturing struggled, as orders for durable goods fell by 2.2%, and business activity stayed weak.