For the week ending July 11, 2025

Oil inventories surprised to the upside, keeping pressure on energy prices, while jobless claims came in softer than expected, pointing to a still-resilient labor market. Treasury auctions went off with modest demand, and consumer credit growth cooled more than forecasted. Speculators continued to adjust positions in gold and equity indexes, while the federal budget showed a rare June surplus after months in the red.

Prices & Inflation
Inflation expectations keep grinding lower, easing some pressure on the Fed.

• One-year consumer inflation expectations dipped to 3.0% in June, the lowest reading since early 2021 and down from 3.2% a month earlier.

Energy & Commodities
Big crude builds and fewer rigs point to ample supply even as summer demand picks up.

• API data showed a surprise 7.1 million-barrel build in crude stocks versus expectations for a draw.

• The EIA confirmed the trend, reporting a 7.07 million-barrel build while Cushing inventories ticked up 0.46 million barrels after six weeks of declines.

• The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook left 2025 global demand growth essentially unchanged, with only a modest shave to the U.S. supply forecast.

• Baker Hughes counted 424 active oil rigs, down one on the week, while the total rig count fell to 537.

• Oil rigs now sit 17 below last year’s level, underscoring a slow-rolling downturn in drilling activity.

Bond Market & Federal Reserve
Investors snapped up shorter maturities, but the 30-year auction tailed, and the Fed’s balance sheet inched higher.

• The 3-year note cleared at 3.891 %, well below the 3.972 % yield at last month’s sale.

• The 10-year auction stopped at 4.362 %, also through the prior 4.421 % level.

• The 30-year bond tailed at 4.889 %, the highest yield since early May, hinting at lingering long-term supply concerns.

• The Fed’s balance sheet ticked up by $2 billion to $6.662 trillion.

Labor Market
Claims data show only a gentle cooling in hiring demand.

• Initial jobless claims slipped to 227 k from 232 k, beating forecasts for 236 k.

• Continuing claims nudged up to 1.965 million but remain below the 2 million threshold.

Credit & Budget
Households reined in borrowing just as Uncle Sam booked a rare surplus.

• May consumer credit expansion slowed sharply to $5.1 billion, barely a third of April’s pace.

• The federal budget posted a $27 billion surplus in June after a $316 billion deficit the prior month, helped by strong June tax receipts.