For the week ending April 4, 2025

Please see the summary of last week's economic indicator outcomes below (grouped by indicator type):

Manufacturing & Industry

Mixed results across manufacturing indicators, with some showing modest improvement and others slipping into contraction.

• Chicago PMI rose to 47.6 in March, above the 43.6 forecast and February’s 45.5.

• S&P Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.2 from 49.8, moving just into expansion territory.

• ISM Manufacturing dropped to 49.0%, below forecast and February’s 50.3.

• Factory orders rose 0.6%, matching expectations but slowing from January’s 1.8%.

Employment

Job growth came in stronger than expected, though unemployment ticked slightly higher.

• ADP reported 155,000 private-sector jobs in March, beating the 120,000 estimate.

• Initial jobless claims declined to 219,000 from 225,000, better than the 228,000 forecast.

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, well above the 140,000 consensus.

• The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1%.

• Average hourly wages increased 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations.

• Year-over-year wage growth slowed to 3.8% from 4.0%.

Services & Business Activity

Service-sector data stayed in expansion but weakened slightly according to ISM.

• S&P U.S. Services PMI was finalized at 54.4, up slightly from the prior 54.3.

• ISM Services fell to 50.8%, below both forecasts and February’s 53.5.

Trade & Autos

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed, and auto sales saw a notable jump.

• The trade deficit narrowed to $122.7B in February from $130.7B the prior month.

• March auto sales rose to 17.8 million units from 16.0 million in February.

In a Nutshell

Employment figures were stronger than expected, with job gains outpacing forecasts, though the unemployment rate nudged slightly higher. Manufacturing remained soft, with ISM dipping below the growth threshold, while factory orders showed modest gains. Service sector activity remains in expansion mode but weakened according to ISM data. The trade deficit narrowed, and auto sales jumped sharply